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Fluctuation in economy – recession and expansion
When it comes to important
issues in buying a home, everybody has heard the saying: location, location,
location. It is true that location is a
key matter when it comes to buying a home, but an underrated aspect to buying a
home is: knowing when to buy a home. By
paying attention to fluctuations in the economy, prospective homebuyers will be
able to take advantage of economic conditions and purchase a home for a price
that is advantageous to them.
Fluctuations in economy can occur for a number of reasons that economic
analysts attribute to a number of reasons.
Some analysts believe that fluctuations in the economy are caused by
uneven government policies whereas others believe that these same government
policies are responsible for balancing fluctuations in the economy that are
caused by the inherent nature of the market.
Regardless of the reason, fluctuations in the economy are now a natural
part of life. Political responses to
these economic fluctuations are also now a part of modern life and it is
possible for prospective homebuyers to take advantage of both the economic
conditions and their political responses to purchase a home for a good price.
There are two main extremes
to fluctuations in economy – recession and expansion. Economic recession refers to a period of time in which the public
has less faith in the economy than in normal times. This is because economic recession is marked by general trends of
decreases in overall output as well as employment. New construction rates are lower while unemployment rates are
higher. Economic recessions, at their
worst, can result in conditions similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Conversely, economic expansion refers to a period of time in which the public
has great faith in the economy compared to normal times. It is a time where employment levels are
high and so are new construction rates and overall output rates. Conversely, unemployment levels are low and
prices of products will rise due to the positive economic conditions.
These economic fluctuations
are difficult to predict and do not lost for a specific amount of time. There can be numerous factors that cause
these changes in the economic conditions, which can be purely economic,
political, social, technological, and whatnot.
From a homebuyer’s
perspective, economic recession and expansion have a number of advantages and
benefits. During an economic expansion,
employment rates are increasingly high and consumers are increasingly willing
to take chances with their finances.
Consequently, times of economic expansion are usually periods where
prospective homebuyers feel confident that the positive economic conditions
will continue thus allowing them to make the considerable investment needed to
fulfill the down payment and closing costs component of buying a home.
As economic expansion is a
time marked by high levels of home purchases, there are a number of reasons why
a period of economic expansion may not be the best time to buy a home. Due to the increased amount of potential
homebuyers, the real estate market conditions in times of economic expansion,
has much more prospective homebuyers than they do homes available. Consequently, asking prices for homes will
increase due to the rising market value of homes. Additionally, mortgage rates tend to be higher in times of
economic expansion due to reactions by lenders to changes in the nation’s
interest rates.
The Federal Reserve control
interest rate levels and interest rates tend to increase during periods of
economic expansion. The reason why
interest rates increase during a time of economic expansion is due to fear of
inflation caused by rising prices. As
mortgage rates are dependent on interest rates, mortgage rates levels are more
likely to rise during a period of economic expansion. Considering that most homebuyers are unable to purchase a home
outright, these high mortgage levels may not be a deterrent for prospective homebuyers
to buy a home.
During a period of economic
downturn or recession, there is a general trend of rising unemployment rates
and decreasing overall output.
Additionally, the rates of new construction are reduced and prices may
continue to rise, although they do so at a much slower rate than during a
period of economic expansion. Although
this may seem like a poor time to purchase a home, it actually may be in your
best financial interest to buy a home during a recession.
This is because an economic
recession often changes the local real estate market conditions. Considering, the fiscal conservatism that
people employ during periods of economic recession, these economic conditions
produces few demands in the housing market.
Additionally, the increasing levels of unemployment levels caused by a
recession means that many homeowners are now put into a position where they are
forced to sell their home to accommodate changing job demands. Consequently, an economic recession also
produces a large number of homes that are on sale.
In addition to how an
economic recession will reduce the asking prices for homes for sale, an
economic recession has another positive aspect for potential homebuyers. This is due to lower mortgage rates caused
by changes in interest rates. Changes
in interest rate levels are made by the Federal Reserve as a way to regulate
the economy. Therefore, in a period of
economic downturn, the Federal Reserve tends to reduce interest rates in an
attempt to revive the economy. This is
because reduced interest rates are usually attractive to businesses and people
who want to borrow money or refinance existing loans at a reduced level. Consequently, lower interest rates will
result in lower mortgage rates, which produce monthly mortgage payments that
are advantageous for homebuyers.
However, it is important to
note that many prospective homebuyers are unable to purchase a home during an
economic recession due to heightened fears of job security. As homeownership requires that a homebuyer
has some stable form of income, many homebuyers would prefer to make the
considerable investment required to buy a home in a time where economic
conditions will reinforce their consumer confidence.
Additionally, for prospective homebuyers who already own a home, it is usually
not in their best interests to purchase a home during an economic
recession. Unless, you have the
financial capabilities to purchase a home without selling your existing home,
economic recessions will offer a contradiction to you. This is because you would have to sell your
home before accumulating enough capital to pay for the down payment and closing
costs required to purchase a home but that is not covered by a mortgage
loan. Consequently, if you were to try
to purchase a home during this economic downturn, you will also have to sell
your home during a time where local market conditions favor homebuyers much
more than they do home sellers.
Therefore, it is recommended that you wait until economic levels change
to the point where you will be able to sell your home for an amount of money
that is suitable.
For individuals whose
intentions for purchasing a home is based solely on the investment value, an
economic recession is the best time to purchase a home. This is because market conditions favor
homebuyers during an economic recession.
Not only does supply and demand conditions ensures that there are far
more homes available for sale than there are interested buyers, but mortgage
rates will be lower in order to stimulate economic activity. Consequently, homes can be purchased for a
level that is much lower than the ones presented during normal economic times
or during an economic expansion.
It is important to note that fluctuations in the national economy may not
result in drastic changes to local real estate market conditions. For example, the dot com bust led to drastic
reductions in real estate prices in the Silicon Valley, the site of many of
these businesses. However, in
Pittsburgh, this change in local real estate market conditions did not apply to
this mainly industrial city.
Additionally, fluctuations in the economy can vary within the same
city. For example, the flight to
suburbia in New York City meant that real estate market conditions resulted in
lower prices on homes in Brooklyn. In
Manhattan, however, these real estate market conditions did not change
drastically.
Therefore, it is important
to study how fluctuations in the national economy affect your local economy or
the local economy of the area where you want to purchase a home. By studying the market conditions of the
neighborhood where the home you want to purchase is located, you may be able to
purchase this home at a level that is conducive to your goals. However, it is important to note that
fluctuations in the economy are nearly impossible to predict. Therefore, it is recommended that you do not
become overly obsessed with economic trends.
If you find a home that you want to purchase in a neighborhood that you
enjoy for an appropriate price that you are able to afford, do not wait for
economic conditions to change the asking price of this home. Just fulfill your original goal of buying a
home and you will be much more happier for it.
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